Skepticism and Denial

Skepticism is not only normal human behavior, its also crucial for science and any sort of analytical thinking. Given that, it's probably unsurprising that normal skepticism sometimes turn into cranky denial of that which has been well demonstrated. For a scientist, Feynman said, the most important thing to be skeptical about is your own theories. That's the step that so few of the hard core denialists can manage. Their skepticism is just another manifestation of their blind faith.

There is a continuum for denial, from total wacko to slightly overenthusiastic skeptic. There really are some who claim to believe the Earth is flat. In the US, a huge percentage of the population doubts evolution. There still are a few scientists who doubt relativity and a lot who find conventional quantum mechanics unacceptable.

At bottom, denial is usually the manifestation of unwillingness to doubt our own prejudices. For such people, evidence is almost beside the point. Does Darwin cast doubt on the Bible? Then Darwin must go, whatever the evidence for him and whatever lack of evidence there is for anything in the Bible.

I don't think that there is any industry for doubting the spherical character of the Earth or even relativity, but that's not the case for Darwin. Religious leaders were quick to see what a fundamental challenge natural selection posed to their sacred texts, and they have been counterattacking for most of the past 150 years. Their weapons are faith, religion, fake science of their own invention, and yes, good old skepticism - the kind that looks only outward.

When it became clear to big Tobacco that they were selling a product that killed millions, they were quick to get religion, or at least to adopt the tactics of delay and confusion that had worked for religion. Paid liars, some disguised as scientists, were there to spread the message. The same tactic was deployed again, with even the same cast of characters when it became clear that CFCs were destroying the ozone layer.

By the time the specter of anthropogenic global warming loomed, these battles had been lost, and the usual cast of characters was mostly out of work, so AGW was a perfect opportunity: some fairly difficult new science, some complicated measurement methods, computer models, and best of all, a huge, fabulously rich industry that didn't want it to be true. Add to these the idelogical conservatives who can't believe that there can be a threat that requires a collective response and the time religious who are convinced that god is driving their train, and the AGW denial industry was born.

It continues to thrive.