Lumos' Little Climate Joke

Our good buddy Lubosh Motl has posted some figures on warming trends in Central England from 1659 to the present. When he plots the warming trend (essentially the first time derivative of the temperature) he finds quite amazingly that the past and present look rather alike to the casual eye. Anyone who has ever looked at noisy data knows that if you start looking at derivatives of noisy data the noise is sure to crowd out the data. Frankly, I'm a little disappointed that he would resort to such a cheap bit of fakery - suitable for fooling the bozos I suppose.

If you look at the actual temperatures instead of the time rate of change, you can see something more meaningful and familiar: a noisy signal, with the warmest temperatures heavily concentrated in the late twentieth and early twentyfirst century.



UPDATE: I presented this notion to the Prof and his reply was:

For a random walk, it is extremely likely that the beginning and/or end of an interval maximizes and/or minimizes the function...

Which left me curous as to how likely "extremely likely" was. For a random walk of 350 steps (say of equally likely plus or minus one), just how likely is it that the final step is the maximum of the set? Inquiring statistical minds would like to know. For n=1 I get P=50%, but 1 is a pretty small number...

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Anti-Libertarian: re-post

The most pointed critique of social security and liberalism in general is the libertarian critique. The problem with libertarians, for a liberal, is that we have too much in common. We both believe in individual rights, tolerance of individual differences, and dislike government prescription of religion. The basic difference, it seems to me, is the different answers we give to Cain's (with thanks to the Captain - my original version had the corpse asking the question!) famous question: "Am I my brother's keeper?" That's not really my basic bitch against the libertarians though. My real complaint is the same as my complaint against most religion - its premise is a fraud. For those who can't stand to wait for the punchline, I believe that trying to implement libertarian principles leads to tyranny or social disintegration. Demonstrating that takes some historical (and pre-historical) context. For all but the last 15,000 or so of the 100,000 years the human spec
Read more

Uneasy Lies The Head

Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown ........... Shakespeare Henry IV, Part II. So it is with us and our slightly distant primate cousins , so it seems. A 9-year study of wild baboons in Kenya by Princeton University and the Institute of Primate Research may turn conventional assumptions of alphas males upside down. The study found that alpha males have high testosterone levels, which allows them to dominate other baboons, get access to more food, and attract better mates. This is expected. Surprisingly, though, the alpha males also have high levels of stress hormone glucocorticoid, which scientists measured from their feces samples. In fact, the stress of alpha baboons was on par with low-ranking baboons. The convention wisdom is that access to food and females provides life security and thus less stress for dominant males. Conversely, weak males who are constantly threatened by starvation and physical violence from stronger males are thought to be more stressed. The st
Read more

We Call it Soccer

The US played its best, and maybe only good game of World Cup, but lost thanks to brilliant goalkeeping by the Swedish keeper and the bizarre method soccer uses to settle ties when three US stars could not put the ball on frame from the 12 yard spot.  At the end it came down to a blocked shot that spun in by maybe a couple of centimeters. Well, that's football - too much like life.   Which brings me to a modest proposal.  Replace the thirty minute overtimes with as many 7-player 15 minute periods as needed to settle it.  Scoring should be much easier with fewer players.
Read more