What is North Korea Up To?

If the North wanted all out war (and self-immolation) all they need do is launch it. So why provoke the South in such and extreme way, by sinking one of its ships? Perhaps it's gratifying to watch the US and South Korea scrambling around trying to find some suitable response short of cataclysm. Sink a few ships? A predator strike on the maximum leader? Those could send a message at a very considerable risk of all-out war.

One of the secrets of being the crazy guy with the bomb is convincing everybody that you are just crazy enough to use it. Kim Jong-il has quite a bit of credibility on that count.

I've heard it claimed that most wars start because somebody thinks that they can get away with it and somebody else figures that they can't afford to let them.

Our own history suggests, of course, that we can't afford to be very credulous regarding claims of provocation. Yes, I remember the Maine and The Gulf of Tonkin and Saddam's mobile chemical factories that were really hydrogen generators for weather balloons. Never discount the idea that our own leaders are lying, deluded, or more commonly, both.

In any case, some punishment seems certain. The danger will be less is China cooperates in some sanctions.

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