Friday, October 03, 2014

James Has Some Words About Climate Sensitivity.

From James A.

Mostly about climate sensitivity, but also I note this:

Clearly, the longer the relatively slow warming continues, the lower the estimates will go. And despite what some people might like to think, the slow warming has certainly been a surprise, as anyone who was paying attention at the time of the AR4 writing can attest. I remain deeply unimpressed by the way in which this embarrassment has been handled by the climate science insiders, and IPCC authors in particular. Their seemingly desperate attempts to denigrate anything that undermines their storyline (even though a few years ago the same people were using markedly inferior analyses of this very type to bolster it!) do them no credit.

The thing is, there really are substantial remaining uncertainties. My guess is that climate sensitivity is higher over the long run than the current rate of surface temperature increase might suggest. Heat going into the ocean may hide there for a decade or three, but not forever.