The Brink
We seem to have accomplished the feat of making the lives of the Iraqi people considerably more miserables than they were under an evil and sadistic dictator. Juan Cole reports some of the evidence that the Iraqi civil war is intensifying. Al Quaeda seems to have accomplished its strategic goal in Iraq - an ironic counterpart to George Bush, who similarly accomplished his strategic goal - his reelection.
But what about the elections? If nothing else, they demonstrate that elections aren't a substitute for the kind of social bargain that permits a nation to function.
Leaving aside the question of the wisdom of invading Iraq, every day provides fresh evidence of the incompetence of the occupation. Lacking the manpower and skill set needed to carry out a successful occupation, the Bush team based its strategy on slogans and the wishful thought that the Iraqis might figure out how to put their country back together on their own.
Is there still some hope that this might happen? There seems to be little optimism among those whose paychecks don't depend on George Bush.
The less serious of the threats from a civil war is that the Iraqi Shia will align themselves with Iran to form regional power, one likely to have nuclear weapons at some point in the future. The worst case scenario sucks Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia into general regional ethnic and religious warfare. If that happens, oil can say hello to $300 a barrel.
But what about the elections? If nothing else, they demonstrate that elections aren't a substitute for the kind of social bargain that permits a nation to function.
Leaving aside the question of the wisdom of invading Iraq, every day provides fresh evidence of the incompetence of the occupation. Lacking the manpower and skill set needed to carry out a successful occupation, the Bush team based its strategy on slogans and the wishful thought that the Iraqis might figure out how to put their country back together on their own.
Is there still some hope that this might happen? There seems to be little optimism among those whose paychecks don't depend on George Bush.
The less serious of the threats from a civil war is that the Iraqi Shia will align themselves with Iran to form regional power, one likely to have nuclear weapons at some point in the future. The worst case scenario sucks Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia into general regional ethnic and religious warfare. If that happens, oil can say hello to $300 a barrel.
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