Indigestion

The European Union expanded dramatically after the Soviet Union fell, and now they are feeling some indigestion. The current tiff between French President Sarkozy and the Czechisa Vclav Klaus is a minor symptom.

The real problem is more fundamental. The Europeans can't decide whether they want to be a loose economic coalition or a "United States of Europe." Trying to occupy some middle ground is apparently impossible - there doesn't seem to be any stable state there.

The United States under the Articles of Confederation faced a similar problem - as a loose confederation they had no military power and considerable problems with internal trade. Even after the Constitution was adopted, it took a civil war to establish clearly the relative roles of state and nation. Europe's problem with unification is harder, mainly because of linguistic and cultural differences, but also because of the long history warfare and division. The Eastern European countries want the military shelter of NATO but don't want a European state - nor, probably, do most of the Western countries.

Ever since the Second World War, the US provided Europe with some adult supervison, especially through its military power. That era is over. The US no longer has the resources or interest to play that role. It seems likely that Europe will evolve into a collection of independent and competitive states without any real power in the world. That shouldn't present a problem unless Russia returns to superpower status. In that case Europe will be a prize that the US and China will not be able to afford to let fall into Russian hands. What exactly they will be able to do about it is another question.

Or perhaps Europe will find some elusive middle ground that allows it to protect itself without becoming a nation - but I wouldn't count on it.