Evolutionary Strategy and Rational Expectations

Humans are a long lived species slow to reach reproductive maturity. For most of our history, successfully reproducing males depended on reaching maturity, becoming a alpha male, and making the most of our reproductive opportunities during a relatively short period in the dominant hierarchy. Males could also contribute to their genetic legacy by support of offspring during their vulnerable youth and by choosing females likely to live long enough to nurture the children. That, and one's genes, were the ultimate extent of integenerational altruism.

Viewed in that light, the career trajectory of a traditional NFL football player makes sense: a youth of glory, three years of wealth, followed by bankruptcy. Before the crash, he has a few brief years as the ultimate alpha male, and in fact many players use that time to maximize their reproductive opportunities.

From the perspective of biology, this is a triumph of rational expectations, but not one compatible with the one the economists use.

The economists rational expectations and efficient markets fall afoul of biology, and biology wins often enough to trash their theories.

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