Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Iran Plot: Conspiracy Theory Edition

When I first heard of the Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador, my first thought was - hmmm, could this be an Israeli false flag operation? If so, could they really fool our FBI and CIA? How about a joint US-Israel bit of tricksiness?

It seems like a long shot, but it still could be convenient. Iran seems likely to be approaching nuclear weapon development, at least if we credit those 4-6 years to a nuke predictions we heard five to seven years ago.

Is this a big enough provocation to cause the US to sponsor a bomb, bomb, bomb Iran event? Not if the reaction to date - calls for more sanctions - is an indicator.

Consider the proposed targets, however. What does Israel need to attack Iran? One thing they might need is a clear flight path, and the clearest flight path is probably right over Saudi Arabia. Of course they probably also need at least tacit permission from the US.

Could this sufficient provocation to produce such permissions? TBD.

At the minimum, the US could certainly demand the surrender of the Iranian charged. Iran is hardly likely to agree.