Long Term Weather Prediction: The Real Story

Jeff Masters tropical weather blog is not only a vital resource for hurricane junkies, but occasionally has some other tidbits, like the above cited discussion of woolly bear long term weather prediction. An excerpt:
According to legend, the severity of the upcoming winter can be judged by examining the pattern of brown and black stripes on woolly bear caterpillars--the larvae of Isabella tiger moths. If the brown stripe between the two black stripes is thick, the winter will be a mild one. A narrow brown stripe portends a long, cold winter.
The good news: The woolly bears have more successful predictions than string theory. The bad:
...The Hagerstown critters have had mixed success the past three years with their forecasts--they've been correct about half the time. This is only slightly worse than the official NOAA long range forecasts.

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