The Road to Iran

Many indicators are out there that Bush is itching to attack Iran. Josh Marshall speculates about how he plans to manage to conjure up a pretext:

As the saying goes, if it didn't exist, you'd have to invent it.

So with that in mind, let's do a little prospective journalism. When the bogus 'Iran incident' happens that becomes the predicate for a military attack on Iran, what will it look like? Let's try to sketch it out in advance. Will it be a real incident in Iraq for which the Iranians are blamed? Or will it be a complete bogus incident, something that never happened, that they're blamed for? Will we receive the news in manufactured evidence? Or will it all come through unnamed leaks and Richard Perle appearances on CNN?

Drudge and NBC are apparently already on the case:

NBC NEWS confirms a secret U.S. military report that says 'Iranian Agents' may be behind a deadly ambush in Karbala, Iraq that left five American soldiers dead. The report also claims the Iranian revolutionary guard is providing intelligence on U.S. and Iraqi military to Shiite extremists, in addition to sophisticated weaponry. Developing...

How likely is this report to be bogus? We have seen the Bush and Cheney lies so often, I discount anything coming from them. One or a few incidents that "may be" Iran sponsored don't look like convincing evidence to me. Remember, the same groups that got us into Iraq still want us to take down Iran.

If the insurgents do get late model Russian anti-aircraft missiles (SA-16 and SA-18) from Iran, we will likely see Blackhawks raining from the sky. I don't think Iran wants war, and I don't think they are going to give the insurgents this kind of help.


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