Declaring Victory

The stars seem to be aligning in favor of a major pullback/pullout in Iraq next year. Even though I strongly favor this, I worry about the upshot. The most serious fears and my WAG at the probabilities:

1) Civil war followed by regional war. A worst case scenario, but not altogether improbable. (5%)

2) Civil war and chaos. A castrophe for Iraqis, but maybe the damage can be localized. (25%)

3) A Shia theocracy aligned with Iran. Iran becomes the power of the Middle East. (30%)

4) More of the same. A semi-democratic state limps along, bedevilled by a robust insurgency and helped by a contining US presence. (25%)

And the hope:

5) A stable, independent, and partially democratic state. (15%)

I hope I'm not being optimistic.

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