Extrication

Regular readers, if any, will know that I'm deeply pessimistic about the Bush-Rumsfeld policy in Iraq, in any of its incarnations. So what can we do?

Option I: Get the hell out, and let the Devil take the hindmost. This is what we ultimately did in Vietnam, and the result was less than catastrophic, for us and for Asia. Unfortunate side effects would be that our enemies would be greatly emboldened, our tattered prestige tattered even more, and our Middle Eastern Allies would be at great risk. Probably even more seriously, there would almost certainly be a civil war, a civil war that would likely bring in several other nations, with a likelyhood of making Iran the regional superpower. There would be a good chance that we could kiss Middle East oil goodbye, with catastrophic economic effects.

Option II: If I could figure out what the Bushies were actually trying to accomplish, that would be my Option II. We are turning the country into a vast anti-American terrorist training camp, turning most political power over to Iranian backed Shia, and presiding over a medium intensity civil war.

Option III: Juan Cole has made a proposal, and has posted several replies, critiques, and answers over at his invaluable site. My summary of his plan would be: pull back to air bases in the Kurdish region and (say) Kuwait, and limit our role to preventing pitched battles in a civil war by making it impossible for the insurgency to assemble and deploy large formations. Aside from that, we would have some special forces whose main role would be to rescue downed American pilots.

I don't know if Juan's plan can work, but it would get us mostly out of Iraq and eliminate most Iraqi caused American casualties and vice versa.

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