Israeli Strategy

Is there a strategy behind Israel's terror campaign against Lebanon's Shia? Maybe so, but I doubt that it can work. Israel had to know that there would be a PR cost to targeting apartment houses and fleeing carloads of children, so they probably had a reason. My guess is that they hope to scare the Shia out of supporting Hizbollah, in elections or on the ground.

The other prong of their strategy consists of driving Hizbollah from the South and replacing them with some international peacekeepers. I can't imagine why any country would sign up for such a role, but maybe somebody will. A five year-old could devise Hizbollah's next move - mounting the same kind of campaign against the foreign army that they mounted against the Israeli occupation, and which eventually drove Israel out.

That's the point of the terror strategy. Hizbollah as a guerrilla army can only succeed with considerable help from the populace and the Lebanese government.

Will it work?

I doubt it. People who have lost home, job and children can live for revenge when nothing else is left.

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