Israel's Dilemma: Again

Recent events have sharpened my view of Israel's dilemma. Hizbollah and Hamas are dancing in the streets about killing and capturing Israeli soldiers. Perhaps it's accidental, but it now strikes me that Israel's enemies have adopted a smarter strategy. As long as Palestinians were blowing themselves up along with bus passengers and cafe patrons, it was easy to scorn them as subhuman crazies.

Soldiers are harder targets but everyone understands that they are fair game in a war. Television in the Middle East and Europe can now show Israel blowing up families and children with helicopter gunships, while Palestinians and Hizbollah look heroic as they fight back with rifles and RPGs against tanks and fighter bombers.

The basic Israeli tactic of hitting back harder, giving pain for pain, only works against an opponent who thinks they have something to lose. If the Israeli offense in Gaza continues for a few more weeks, thousands of Palestinians will starve or die of other deprivations - mostly the very young and the old. Meanwhile, their chances of rescuing their captured soldiers are probably not good.

Israel seems to be operating on autopilot, without an evident strategy or plan. It needs to wake up and find one soon.

Rumor has always argued that the Iraq war was really about protecting Israel. If so, that strategy is also in considerable ruin. The US is likely to abandon Iraq with its Army and reputation seriously damaged. Iraq could be left with a fundamentalist Islamic state with ties to Iran. Meanwhile, Iran's military capability is developing.

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