Gang Warfare, Palestine Style

Israel slaughtered a couple of hundred Palestinians in Gaza today, many of whom probably actually deserved it. This action was Israel's response to continuing rocket attacks and other provocations from the Palestinians. The aerial attacks, a form of shooting fish in a barrel, have the advantage of not putting actual soldiers at risk, or at any rate, much risk. I predict, however, that they won't be effective in stopping future attacks, nor do I think the Israelis think so - except perhaps for the air forces.

Stopping the attacks isn't really the point of course. The point is to make the Israeli public think that the government is doing something and give it the satisfaction of watching somebody else suffer.

Unfortunately, the only ways to actually do something all have their own severe problems: exterminate the Palestinians, rule them, or make peace with them. Israel isn't prepared to pay the cost of any of these - yet. The question is how long the current low intensity gang warfare approach can be sustained.

Israel's godfather, the US, is a tired and battered superpower, and moreover one that is getting a bit weary of carrying Israel's water and fighting its wars - which is what the fights against al Quaeda and Iraq mainly are. If the US were to become neutral and tell Israel to figure out its own way in the world, Israel's choices would narrow dramatically and its prospect for survival darken greatly.

That won't happen in this decade - the Israel lobby is still the most powerful in Washington. It could easily happen later though, especially if the current economic disaster deapens and persists. Anti-Semites have often found fertile ground in panics and depressions. Meanwhile, Iran is probably not far from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and Pakistan, which already has them, is threatening to disintegrate. Who gets the bombs if it does?

All these factors argue for an all out effort to achieve a real peace. Israel would have to make many hard choices, including possibly a real war to defeat Hamas and a nearly as bitter struggle to subdue its own militant settlers. As the saying goes, you can pay now, or you can pay later.