Saruman on Climate Change

Even if one concedes the reality of Anthropogenic Global Warming, there is a case to be made against draconian cuts in carbon emissions. That case, argued principally by conservative economists, rests on the idea that the cost of the required carbon cuts is greater than the cost of the predicted climate change. This is an important and serious argument, and it rests, quite unfortunately, on a pair of quite uncertain projections, namely upon the severity of the the respective effects. Moreover, the costs are upfront costs, to be borne by this generation and the next, but the projected benefits go to our grandchildren, great grandchildren, and their progeny.

This case is made, but not well, by our blogging mentor (a distinction I expect he regrets) Lubos Motl. His case is presented as a parable involving a hypothetical house owner and similarly hypothetical structural engineer whose name, Steve Chu, just happens to be shared with the Nobel Physics prizewinner and Energy Secretary designate.

Lumo would like to cure Steve of his "warmophobia."

As for Suruman, we can only note like Gandalf that his cure is beyond us, and hope that he finds his own.

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