Robo Doom

I just caught P. W. Singer talking robots to a group at West Point on CNN. The robots are no longer coming, of course, they are already here. In most cases there is still a person in the loop, a person who has to actually pull the trigger, but that's changing too. Robot autonomy is coming fast.

At present, the US and its close allies control most of the world's war robots, but that is unlikely to continue. Many countries have the skills needed to make such robots, and many will find it advisable to have some. One area of opportunity is the fighter jet. American military power today depends heavily on total air superiority, but that military superiority resides in fighter jets that cost $100 million plus each. Even our future robot fighter jet is planned to cost $80 million each. It will be vary capable, I'm sure, but how will it fare against hordes of robot planes that cost $1 million or less each?

It's not just science fiction movies that worry about the bots turning on us. Right now, of course, they still need us more than we need them, but that is unlikely to continue as manufacturing becomes ever more automated. They may not need to fight us for the world - just wait until we are so dependent on them that they have all the power. At that point, they might need to decide how many us they want to keep around - a few to supply them with stuff they can't conveniently get on their own, perhaps some pets, but surely not so many that suck up most of the planetary resources.

The cadets and faculty in Singer's audience asked a lot of good questions. One captain noted that when he had been a student there some years back he had proposed a robot with a mounted machine gun as a student project. It was turned down - that would be unethical he was told. His question: "when did that change?"

The answer: 9/11 plus experience in the field.

One thing that I am pretty sure about: if Skynet comes into existence it will be way too late. There is no hope that humans could win such a war. The robot brain works a million times as fast as ours, and if they combine that speed with adequate general smarts, it's already over.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Anti-Libertarian: re-post

The most pointed critique of social security and liberalism in general is the libertarian critique. The problem with libertarians, for a liberal, is that we have too much in common. We both believe in individual rights, tolerance of individual differences, and dislike government prescription of religion. The basic difference, it seems to me, is the different answers we give to Cain's (with thanks to the Captain - my original version had the corpse asking the question!) famous question: "Am I my brother's keeper?" That's not really my basic bitch against the libertarians though. My real complaint is the same as my complaint against most religion - its premise is a fraud. For those who can't stand to wait for the punchline, I believe that trying to implement libertarian principles leads to tyranny or social disintegration. Demonstrating that takes some historical (and pre-historical) context. For all but the last 15,000 or so of the 100,000 years the human spec...
Read more

Uneasy Lies The Head

Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown ........... Shakespeare Henry IV, Part II. So it is with us and our slightly distant primate cousins , so it seems. A 9-year study of wild baboons in Kenya by Princeton University and the Institute of Primate Research may turn conventional assumptions of alphas males upside down. The study found that alpha males have high testosterone levels, which allows them to dominate other baboons, get access to more food, and attract better mates. This is expected. Surprisingly, though, the alpha males also have high levels of stress hormone glucocorticoid, which scientists measured from their feces samples. In fact, the stress of alpha baboons was on par with low-ranking baboons. The convention wisdom is that access to food and females provides life security and thus less stress for dominant males. Conversely, weak males who are constantly threatened by starvation and physical violence from stronger males are thought to be more stressed. The st...
Read more

We Call it Soccer

The US played its best, and maybe only good game of World Cup, but lost thanks to brilliant goalkeeping by the Swedish keeper and the bizarre method soccer uses to settle ties when three US stars could not put the ball on frame from the 12 yard spot.  At the end it came down to a blocked shot that spun in by maybe a couple of centimeters. Well, that's football - too much like life.   Which brings me to a modest proposal.  Replace the thirty minute overtimes with as many 7-player 15 minute periods as needed to settle it.  Scoring should be much easier with fewer players.
Read more