Robo Doom

I just caught P. W. Singer talking robots to a group at West Point on CNN. The robots are no longer coming, of course, they are already here. In most cases there is still a person in the loop, a person who has to actually pull the trigger, but that's changing too. Robot autonomy is coming fast.

At present, the US and its close allies control most of the world's war robots, but that is unlikely to continue. Many countries have the skills needed to make such robots, and many will find it advisable to have some. One area of opportunity is the fighter jet. American military power today depends heavily on total air superiority, but that military superiority resides in fighter jets that cost $100 million plus each. Even our future robot fighter jet is planned to cost $80 million each. It will be vary capable, I'm sure, but how will it fare against hordes of robot planes that cost $1 million or less each?

It's not just science fiction movies that worry about the bots turning on us. Right now, of course, they still need us more than we need them, but that is unlikely to continue as manufacturing becomes ever more automated. They may not need to fight us for the world - just wait until we are so dependent on them that they have all the power. At that point, they might need to decide how many us they want to keep around - a few to supply them with stuff they can't conveniently get on their own, perhaps some pets, but surely not so many that suck up most of the planetary resources.

The cadets and faculty in Singer's audience asked a lot of good questions. One captain noted that when he had been a student there some years back he had proposed a robot with a mounted machine gun as a student project. It was turned down - that would be unethical he was told. His question: "when did that change?"

The answer: 9/11 plus experience in the field.

One thing that I am pretty sure about: if Skynet comes into existence it will be way too late. There is no hope that humans could win such a war. The robot brain works a million times as fast as ours, and if they combine that speed with adequate general smarts, it's already over.

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