Thursday, January 26, 2006

Hamas

Electoral victory for Hamas seems to have a lot of people in shock, but I don't know why. Fatah was tired, corrupt, and incompetent. Moreover, it unable to deliver stability or safety.

The fundamental choices for Israel haven't changed: put up with a continuing low intensity war, make a deal, or commit genocide. The first is painful, the second difficult, and the third unspeakable. Unfortunately, many forces will continue to make the second choice nearly impossible and the third more likely.

I sometimes think that there is some principle of human nature which inevitably produces escalation from bad to worse. It seems likely that the Hamas victory will lead to a Netanyahu victory, more repression, a violent reaction by Hamas. Chances for a sensible solution become ever less as the most extreme on each side come to power.