HIQ Smarty-pants

Robert W. Johnson has compiled a list of what he alleges to be the 18 smartest people in the world, together with their alleged IQs. Now it turns out that those on list are chess players (4), authors(3), politicians (2), actors (2), physicists(2), mathematicians(2), a business man, an engineer, and a precocious 12-year old. Terence Tao tops the list with a purportedly “verified” IQ of 230.

Tao is indeed one super smart guy, but is an IQ of 230 really credible? There are two usual definitions for IQ. One, relevant only for young children, is the ratio of so-called mental age to chronological age, as demonstrated on some test. (Full disclosure, your author was once credited with an IQ of 200 based on the fact that at his then chronological age of 40, he already had the mental performance of an average 80 year old). The second method computes IQ based on the statistics of performance on a test – and this is the only score considered appropriate for adults. This standard awards an IQ score of 100 for the mean score and 15 points for every standard deviation above the mean.

On this scoring system Tao’s 230 is 8.67 standard deviations (SD) above the norm, Chris Hirata’s 225 is 8.33 SD and Paul Allen’s 160 a more modest 4 SD. If we look a bit more closely at the normal distribution, we find that while about 16 % of people have an IQ above 115 (1 SD), and a bit more than 2% are at or above 130 (2 SD), only 3 out of 100,000 can match or exceed Paul Allen’s 160 (4 SD). Of course to accurately assess such a score, many more than 100,000 people would need to take the test.

The air gets really rarified when we go to 5.3 SD = IQ 180 (Bobby Fisher, James Woods, John H. Sununu). Statistically, only six people in 100 million do that well.

So what about Terry Tao? SD = 26/3 converts to about 2 people per quintillion (2 x 10^-18), which would make Terry (and Chris, at 4 x 10^-17) smarter than anybody who is ever likely to live.

So on statistical grounds alone, don’t trust any IQ over 150 (5 out of every 10,000).

And definitely don’t trust anybody who claims an IQ of 200 (Z = 20/3, 1.3 x 10^-11).

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Anti-Libertarian: re-post

The most pointed critique of social security and liberalism in general is the libertarian critique. The problem with libertarians, for a liberal, is that we have too much in common. We both believe in individual rights, tolerance of individual differences, and dislike government prescription of religion. The basic difference, it seems to me, is the different answers we give to Cain's (with thanks to the Captain - my original version had the corpse asking the question!) famous question: "Am I my brother's keeper?" That's not really my basic bitch against the libertarians though. My real complaint is the same as my complaint against most religion - its premise is a fraud. For those who can't stand to wait for the punchline, I believe that trying to implement libertarian principles leads to tyranny or social disintegration. Demonstrating that takes some historical (and pre-historical) context. For all but the last 15,000 or so of the 100,000 years the human spec...
Read more

Uneasy Lies The Head

Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown ........... Shakespeare Henry IV, Part II. So it is with us and our slightly distant primate cousins , so it seems. A 9-year study of wild baboons in Kenya by Princeton University and the Institute of Primate Research may turn conventional assumptions of alphas males upside down. The study found that alpha males have high testosterone levels, which allows them to dominate other baboons, get access to more food, and attract better mates. This is expected. Surprisingly, though, the alpha males also have high levels of stress hormone glucocorticoid, which scientists measured from their feces samples. In fact, the stress of alpha baboons was on par with low-ranking baboons. The convention wisdom is that access to food and females provides life security and thus less stress for dominant males. Conversely, weak males who are constantly threatened by starvation and physical violence from stronger males are thought to be more stressed. The st...
Read more

We Call it Soccer

The US played its best, and maybe only good game of World Cup, but lost thanks to brilliant goalkeeping by the Swedish keeper and the bizarre method soccer uses to settle ties when three US stars could not put the ball on frame from the 12 yard spot.  At the end it came down to a blocked shot that spun in by maybe a couple of centimeters. Well, that's football - too much like life.   Which brings me to a modest proposal.  Replace the thirty minute overtimes with as many 7-player 15 minute periods as needed to settle it.  Scoring should be much easier with fewer players.
Read more