538 has upgraded Trump's chances to about one in four. This is based on his surge in several key battleground states: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Iowa.
Meanwhile, the PPIG, or Pig Paranoia Index Generator has reached Defcon Crimson*. It, in turn, is based on several polls, current media hysterias, and, especially the ACI, a proprietary index based on the comments on my blog.
Others: Green, Yellow, Orange, and, reserved for situations where the Earth has already been vaporized, Ultraviolet.